A Social Weather Stations media release

 

The First Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey, fielded from March 20-23, 2015, found that 45% of adult Filipinos said peaceful negotiations are more effective in dealing with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), 20% said military operations are more effective, and the balance of 35% said military operations and peaceful negotiations are equally effective [Chart 1, Table 1].

 

Those who say peaceful negotiations are more effective declined by 17 points from 62% in March 2014, preference for military operations rose by 11 points from 9%, while those who said military operations and peaceful negotiations are equally effective rose by 6 points from 29%.

 

In 12 national surveys since December 1999, peaceful negotiations have consistently been seen as more effective in dealing with the MILF compared to military operations. Despite the recent drop in March 2015, the ratio of those who prefer peaceful negotiations to those who prefer military operations is 2 to 1.

 

Government's net rating declined most on issues regarding peace efforts

 

In an earlier report dated April 23, 2015, the survey also found that, out of 16 specific performance issues rated in both the December 2014 and March 2015 surveys, the National Administration's net satisfaction ratings declined on 12 specific issues, is unchanged on 1 specific issue, and rose on 3 specific issues.

 

Compared to December 2014, down by 18 points from +40 on Defending the country's territorial rights, down by 18 points from +15 on Reconciliation with Muslim rebels, and it was down by 20 points from +17 on Reconciliation with Communist rebels [Table 2].

 

Net satisfaction with National Administration at moderate +19

 

The survey also found 48% satisfied, 23% neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, and 29% dissatisfied with the general performance of the National Administration, for a net satisfaction rating of +19 (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied), classified by SWS as moderate [Chart 2, Table 3].

 

This is a 15-point decline, one grade down, from the good +34 (58% satisfied, 29% dissatisfied) in December 2014.

 

Survey Background

 

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey was conducted from March 20-23, 2015 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults nationwide, 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (sampling error margins of 3% for national percentages, and 6% each for Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao).

 

The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2015 to obtain the national estimates.

 

The Social Weather Survey items on public satisfaction with the general performance of the National Administration, and its performance on specific issues, are non-commissioned. These items were included on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service.

 

The satisfaction rating with the general performance of the National Administration is based on a single question, and is not an average of answers to separate questions on specific issues. The general rating is repeated in every quarterly survey, whereas only a core of the specific issue-ratings are repeated. Many issue-ratings are either included or excluded depending on their contemporary salience.

 

The question on effective means in dealing with the MILF is part of a module on the Mamasapano Incident and the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) which were included in the survey by Social Weather Stations (SWS) in partnership with The Asia Foundation (TAF). The full results of the survey module will be presented in a public forum on May 15, 2015 at Balay Kalinaw Conference Hall, University of the Philippines, Diliman Quezon City from 8:30 AM-12:00 PM. For details, kindly contact Social Weather Stations at 924-4458; 924-4456 or the UP Institute of Islamic Studies at 929-8286.

 

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations.

 

[SWS terminology for Net Satisfaction Ratings: +70 and above, "excellent"; +50 to +69, "very good"; +30 to +49, "good"; +10 to +29, "moderate", +9 to -9, "neutral"; -10 to -29, "poor"; -30 to -49, "bad"; -50 to -69, "very bad"; -70 and below, "execrable"]. A single-digit net satisfaction is considered not significantly different from zero.

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Chart 1

Table 1

Table 2

Chart 2

Table 3